What is happening with Folger’s coffee?

Direct Answer: Folgers is currently navigating a convergence of three major pressures: a historic supply collapse of Robusta coffee beans due to severe droughts in Vietnam, aggressive cost-cutting measures by its parent company (The J.M. Smucker Co.) to maintain profit margins, and ongoing consumer scrutiny regarding “shrinkflation” and brewing yield claims. While the brand has not announced a formal “recipe change,” the forced reliance on different bean sources to combat rising raw material costs has altered the flavor profile for many sensitive palates. Simultaneously, the company is shifting its business strategy away from traditional ground coffee dominance toward higher-margin liquid concentrates to offset these volatility issues.

For The Loyal Traditionalist: Why the Taste Changed & How to Fix It

If you have been drinking Folgers for 20 years and suddenly feel the taste is “off”—more bitter, acidic, or weak—you are likely not imagining it. While Folgers officially maintains consistency, the agricultural reality contradicts this.

The Counter-Intuitive Truth: The “Robusta Crisis”

Folgers Classic Roast is primarily a blend of Robusta beans (for caffeine and body) and Arabica beans (for flavor). Robusta beans largely come from Vietnam. Recent climate disasters have caused the lowest harvest yields in Vietnam in over a decade.

• The Logic: When the primary ingredient becomes scarce and expensive, mass-market roasters must source beans from different regions or lower-quality tiers to keep the price at $10-$15 per canister. Even if the ratio of the blend stays the same, the terroir (soil and climate character) of the replacement beans changes the flavor.
• The “Palate Shift” Theory: There is also a psychological factor. During the pandemic, many Americans bought higher-end coffee equipment and beans. Your palate may have “graduated,” making the return to mass-market commodity coffee taste harsher by comparison.

Actionable Solution: The Diner Chemistry Hack

You can correct the flavor profile without switching brands by altering the chemistry of the brew.

1. Neutralize the Bitterness: Add a tiny pinch of Kosher salt (sodium chloride) to the grounds before brewing. Salt binds to the salt receptors on your tongue, which biologically suppresses the perception of bitterness, allowing the “nutty” flavors to come forward.
2. Clarify the Water: Mass-market coffee is roasted dark to mask defects. If your tap water has high chlorine, it reacts with these dark roasts to create a metallic taste. Use filtered water specifically for this blend.
3. The “Bloom” Technique: Even with an automatic drip machine, pour a small amount of hot water over the grounds and let them sit for 30 seconds before starting the machine. This releases CO2 (which tastes sour) before the actual brewing begins.

For The Budget-Conscious Shopper: Calculating True Inflation

You are concerned that the canister is lighter, yet the price is higher. You are witnessing “Density Manipulation,” a subtle form of shrinkflation that goes beyond just changing the number on the label.

The Counter-Intuitive Truth: The “Roast Aeration” Effect

Coffee beans expand when roasted. By roasting beans slightly faster at higher temperatures (a technique often used in industrial processing), manufacturers can “puff up” the beans.

• The Result: The beans take up more physical space (volume). A 30-ounce canister looks full to the brim, but the actual mass (weight) of the coffee inside has dropped from 30oz to 25.9oz or 22.6oz over time. You are buying air and packaging geometry, not just coffee.

Actionable Solution: The “Price-Per-Gram” Audit

Stop looking at the price tag; look at the unit price.

1. Ignore “Cups Per Canister”: This metric is subjective and unregulated (see legal section below).
2. Calculate Cost Per Ounce:
   • Take the Shelf Price (e.g., $12.99).
   • Divide by Net Weight printed on the bottom (e.g., 22.6 oz).
   • Result: $0.57 per ounce.
3. The Store Brand Swap: Compare this to the store brand (e.g., Walmart’s Great Value or Costco’s Kirkland).
   • The “White Label” Logic: Major roasters often have excess capacity and roast coffee for store brands in the exact same facilities. If the store brand is 30% cheaper per ounce and lists “100% Coffee” with no additives, it is economically irrational to pay the premium for the Folgers red plastic container.

For Investors & Analysts: The J.M. Smucker Pivot

You are watching SJM stock and wondering why margins are tightening despite price hikes. The issue is Commodity Hedging Failure.

The Counter-Intuitive Truth: The Futures Lag

Large corporations buy coffee on the “Futures Market” (contracts to buy coffee months or years in advance).

• The Situation: SJM likely locked in prices years ago. Those favorable contracts have expired. They are now exposed to the current “Spot Price,” which has hit historic highs. Raising consumer prices is a lagging indicator—they are chasing the market, not leading it.
• The Strategy Shift: Notice the company’s aggressive marketing of Folgers Liquid Concentrates. Liquid coffee is the “Tech Software” of the grocery aisle—it has massive profit margins compared to ground coffee because you are selling mostly water and convenience, bypassing the volatile bean market.

Actionable Solution: Monitor the “C-Price” Spread

1. Track the Spread: Watch the price difference between Arabica futures (KC) and Robusta futures (RM). When Robusta prices spike (as they have), margins for brands like Folgers (which rely on Robusta) get crushed harder than premium brands like Starbucks (which use Arabica).
2. Investment Thesis: If SJM successfully transitions consumers to liquid concentrates, their stock becomes less volatile and less tethered to harvest reports. If consumers reject the concentrates, the stock remains vulnerable to climate change in Vietnam.

For Consumer Advocates: The “Servings” Lawsuit Reality

You feel cheated by the claim that a canister makes “up to 210 cups.” This is the battleground of Regulatory Semantics.

The Counter-Intuitive Truth: The “6-Ounce” Loophole

Folgers (and others) utilize a measurement standard that defies modern logic.

• The Math: They define a “cup” of coffee as 6 fluid ounces. However, the standard American mug is 8 to 12 ounces.
• The Brewing Ratio: To achieve the “210 cups” claim, the instructions often require using a ratio of coffee-to-water that creates a brew significantly weaker than what the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) considers “coffee.” If you brew it to taste “strong” or “normal,” you will get perhaps 60% of the claimed servings.

Actionable Solution: The Kitchen Scale Verification

Do not rely on the scoop provided.

1. The Golden Ratio Test: The standard ratio for decent coffee is 1:16 (1 gram of coffee for every 16 grams of water).
2. The Test:
   • Weigh the total contents of a Folgers canister (e.g., 640 grams).
   • If you drink 8oz mugs (approx 240g of water), you need 15 grams of coffee per mug for a standard strength.
   • 640g ÷ 15g = 42 actual mugs.
3. Compare to Label: If the label says “Makes 200 cups,” you now have empirical data of the disparity between “marketing math” and “physics.” This calculation is the foundation of validity for consumer complaints.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does my Folgers coffee taste different recently?

The flavor profile has likely shifted due to a historic supply collapse of Robusta beans caused by severe droughts in Vietnam. To maintain price points, the company has had to source beans from different regions; even if the blend ratio remains constant, the different soil and climate characteristics of these replacement beans alter the taste.

Why does the coffee canister feel lighter despite looking full?

You are witnessing “Density Manipulation” through a process called roast aeration. Manufacturers roast beans faster at higher temperatures to “puff them up,” increasing their volume so they fill the container while the actual net weight of the coffee decreases.

How can I improve the taste of mass-market coffee without switching brands?

You can use “diner chemistry” to correct the flavor: add a tiny pinch of Kosher salt to the grounds to neutralize bitterness, use filtered water to avoid chlorine reactions, and pour a small amount of hot water over the grounds 30 seconds before brewing to release sour CO2 gas.

Why doesn’t a canister yield the number of cups listed on the label?

Folgers calculates servings based on a “cup” size of only 6 fluid ounces and a brewing ratio that produces very weak coffee. If you brew to a standard strength using a typical 8-to-12-ounce mug, you will receive significantly fewer servings than the “up to” claim suggests.

Why is the company focusing more on liquid concentrates?

J.M. Smucker Co. is pivoting toward liquid concentrates because they offer much higher profit margins and rely less on raw coffee beans. This strategy helps the company offset the financial volatility caused by rising bean prices and the expiration of favorable futures contracts.

References